As Russia amassed thousands of troops and tanks on Ukraine’s border at the end of 2021 and the threat of nuclear war loomed large, Ukraine’s leadership ramped up a distinctly non-physical counter-offensive. President Volodymyr Zelensky and his tech savvy team focused on building a communications machine harnessing social media messaging, marketing savvy and celebrity to fight Russia digitally as well as directly on the battlefield. Never has a sitting president relied so heavily on various social apps to communicate both at home and abroad, and to build Ukraine’s brand. Whether or not this strategy is sustainable amidst a protracted war and short internet attention spans is yet to be seen, but Zelensky has made a case for marketing war that other leaders are sure to follow.
The Doorstep Podcast – Links to discussions with experts as the war has evolved
It is almost a year since the first protestors stepped onto Kiev’s Maidan to protest ex-President Yanukovich’s pro-Russian policies, a year in which many have died fighting to keep Ukraine independent, a year in which Ukrainians around the world have mobilized to promote the Ukrainian cause and gather humanitarian funds. The story is not over.
For this past year though, I am honored and proud to have been able to create a forum of news sharing and analysis on my Forbes blog (http://www.forbes.com/sites/tatianaserafin/) which has been given an award by the Newswomen’s Club of New York. (http://www.newswomensclubnewyork.com/). More information on all the winners across many different media categories can be found here: FPA-2014-Press-Release
Thank you for reading the pieces and please help me in thanking my partners in coverage, Halyna Klymuk Chomiak, and Yuri Aksyonov, a freelance reporter based out of Kiev, for their local insights and knowledge and inspiration.
And thank you to the Newswomen’s Club which has helped me in my journalist’s journey!
Lesser Coat of Arms of Ukraine (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
My grandfather was a Ukrainian freedom fighter in the second World War sparring with the Nazis and communists to create a free Ukrainian state. He was on the losing side, and his country was consumed by Stalin’s Soviet Union. His hope for a free Ukraine lived on, along with those in the Ukrainian diaspora who recreated Ukrainian hamlets in the East Village in New York City, in the camps of the Catskills and all around the world from Canada to Argentina to Australia. These Ukrainians who lost their nation taught my generation how to be Ukrainian – by speaking the language and by continuing the refrain:
Слава Україні! – Slava Ukrainy! – Glory to Ukraine!
He did not live to see the Soviet Union’s fall and the blue and yellow flag of the nation he so loved flying high. I am glad he is not here today to see the Ukraine that he longed for coming apart at the seams. Today’s referendum in Crimea conducted under Soviet guns is history redux. The struggle is one for the very soul of Ukraine.
Ukraine has balanced its two faces throughout its history – the two faces in opposition today. The face of Janus turning to the East harkens back millenia. My first day in a graduate seminar on the History of Ukraine, I had to answer the question – did Ukraine as a country ever exist? Its origins in an early Slavic state called Kievan Rus are also considered the birth of Russia. Its borders have shifted as empires suppressed minority nationalities and traded territory like baseball card collectors. Stalin’s Russification and division of Ukraine was more of the same. The country’s split behooved Stalin so that he could maintain control of Ukraine’s natural assets – not just its breadbasket but also its coalmines in the East, which fed an enormous steel-making complex that propelled the Soviet Union’s industrialization. After starving millions of Ukrainians during the Great Famine, and purging millions more, Stalin filled Ukraine with those loyal to him and forced those who weren’t to conform.
Putin is pursuing the same tactics. Taking control of assets, moving in troops, suppressing the voices of those who disagree with him. He is using propaganda to play up divisions that exist but do not have to be divisive (many people, me included, speak both Ukrainian and Russia for example so it’s not a language division). And it looks like he’s playing to shift the borders once again.
The face of Janus to the West are all who see the potential of Ukraine in Europe. Ukraine has been looking to Europe for centuries. Today, Ukrainian citizens see opportunities for Ukraine to reshape its political landscape to be more democratic and less despotic, the chance to restart the economy with a version of shock therapy like Poland did back in 1989, the ability to build social, cultural, and literary links that have already bloomed. Take for example my cousin from the south of Ukraine (near Odessa, i.e. near the Crimea flashpoint) who is now studying in Poland where hundreds of Ukrainians like her are learning how to create a new future for their Ukraine. These ties cannot be severed.
Millions of Ukrainians like me in the Diaspora (14 million or so according to recent figures I have read) are tied to the idea of Ukraine as part of the West, not East. We have come together via social media rallying around “Euromaidan” – Ukraine’s Western Janus that toppled Putin’s lackey, Yanukovich, as well as Ukraine’s new leadership. Protests and letter writing campaigns have united young and old – one pre-form letter stating it the most succinctly, “The soviet ways are not ways that these people ever want to see again in their country.”
We cannot go backwards. In our church coffee hour today, we shared news of loved ones in Ukraine and checked our phones every few minutes for news on the referendum. The consensus rising is that Putin will fail in the long-term, even if he gets his Crimean vote. He has opened a Pandora’s box, said many, who believe the protests erupting across Russia will continue to grow. The hope is that sanctions from Europe and the US will further alienate Putin from his people.
There is also the very real sense that Ukrainians at home and abroad will fight – in actions and words – like my grandfather fought during WWII. The Ukrainian spirit is something Putin can never suppress.
Слава Україні! – Slava Ukrainy! – Glory to Ukraine!
The DJ was pumping summer specials (“Call me Maybe” anyone?), the drinks were free flowing and the bride and the groom looked spectacular, but yesterday at my table all were glued to my cousin’s phone watching the final between Spain and Italy. There were grumbles about how Poland should have done better in its division, but overall awe and joy at Poland and Ukraine getting their moment in the sun after years behind the Iron Curtain.
Though I am not a soccer devotee, it is hard to not be impressed by the spectacle of Eurocup 2012. And even more impressed at how far Poland and Ukraine have come.
I first saw the new Warsaw stadium last year on my return to Poland. Pretty impressive and now how everyone sees Warsaw in their mind’s eye after stupendous event coverage and smashing soccer tourism.
Last year I came back to Warsaw for the first time since 1985. Back then, Poland was just shaking off the ill will of martial law and suffering from a crumbling planned economy. I remember waiting to buy a refrigerator for my great-grandmother who lived in a small village outside Cracow and still did not own one. My family had tried sending her money to buy one, but each time there was none to be had. In the winter, having no icebox was no problem – milk and butter stayed fresh out in the cold; in the summer, these were kept in the well or in the cellar.
At the time, I was 12 and didn’t really understand, or appreciate, why everything was so Little House on the Prairie. I knew we wanted to make my great-grandmother’s life a bit easier. So one day, we got a tip from someone about a truck arriving at an appliance store. Rumor had it that the drivers would be selling the refrigerators straight off the back of the truck before they even had a chance to hit the shelves. We weren’t the only ones getting that same tip. There was queuing, pushing, haggling — dozens of frenzied voices and bodies ready to carry these refrigerators on square backs if need be.
It was the same everywhere. Enormous lines or empty shelves. We went into a restaurant one time, got a menu only to be told they were out of everything. Hours later, somehow a chicken was found and we had our dinner.
Now faded photographs of that time before remain (see my 1985 vintage photo). Today Warsaw is full of four and five star hotels that are at your service 24/7 (including going back to the airport to pick up a forgotten stroller!) and the restaurants are packed, from hip and trendy (U Kucharzy on ul. Ossolinskich, run by the Gessler family which have a restaurant empire a la Batali, www.gessler.pl) to excellent pubs (BrowArmia on ul. Krolewska) and even a superb wine bar (Mielzynski on ul. Burakowska).
Warsaw is also safe and child friendly! The Chopin Museum (ul. Okólnik) is an excellent place to spend an afternoon with a special children’s room full of musical games to a room where you can sit quietly and listen to his music — actually my favorite was reading George Sand’s letters to Chopin! Another fun place: Teatr Malego Widza u(l. Jezuicka 4 ) in Old Town which has shows for little ones.
Indeed, the arts are thriving in Warsaw, especially around the area where the once imposing Palace of Science and Culture (built between 1952 and 1955 as Joseph Stalin’s “gift” to Warsaw) doesn’t seem so imposing anymore. It’s now more on an arts complex, surrounded by half a dozen theaters. I also went to my first theater piece this year in Warsaw, Ingmar Bergman’s Wiarolomni (aka “Faithless”).
The acting was powerful, the neighborhood very Williamsburg. (check out the company site: (http://www.trwarszawa.pl/wydarzenia/wiarolomni). I felt at home. Then I met the cousin of my best friend who is starting a gallery specializing in antique photographs. He moved from Paris a year ago, enticed by the artistic opportunity in Poland.
And much more! One of Warsaw’s mall offerings, Arkadia (al. Jana Pawla), is the antithesis of my 1985 experience. Shelves are stuffed, shoppers overflowing. There are imported foods from around the world, designers galore, an English language bookstore. You can even get your Starbuck’s fix (on Krakowskie Przedmieście) where I love sitting so I can to feel the youthful vibe of the Warsaw University students passing by.
Warsaw 2012. I may have missed the soccer, but I think the city is amazing!
I’ve once again had the privilege to work on Forbes’ World’s Billionaires list with a great team (I was a country editor). This year, we heard a lot more anxiety from billionaires as they manage uncertain markets. As a quick aside, I think our relationships with billionaires is what differentiates us from Bloomberg’s new Billionaires Index (which by the way was started by a former Forbes billionaires editor, Matt Miller). I spend a lot of time on the phone and messaging billionaires and their representatives to understand how they view their businesses and global economic prospects. This one-on-one relationship has given me and my colleagues at Forbes a clear indication of what the world’s global entrepreneurs think the near-term future holds.
Despite a bumpy 2011, billionaires I spoke with are cautiously optimistic for the next twelve months. As one former real estate billionaire, Jorge Perez, put it when I was speaking to him recently, he made money last year after a couple of unprofitable years, and that’s good news – he may find himself back on the billionaires list next year if all his projects continue to grow as planned.
The one constant across the board is that many billionaires are diversifying. Perez for example, who made a bundle on high-end condos during the boom is now looking at middle-market and affordable housing, condos as well as rentals. Billionaires are investing in new areas like tech which happens to the hottest (if one of the only hot) IPO sectors at the moment. When you see Mark Zuckerberg ready to hit the jackpot with his Facebook IPO, or Japan’s Yoshikau Tanaka doubling his fortune as his online social network Gree skyrockets, it make sense. Two of Ukraine’s billionaires who made their billions from heavy industry like pipes and steel are investing in the tech space: Victor Pinchuk announced plans to invest in e-commerce, telecommunications and social network start-ups at Davos and Ukraine’s richest , Rinat Akhmetov, is staking out space on the internet by merging operations with new Ukrainian billionaire, Petro Poroshenko.
Three other sectors are also making billionaires particularly happy: food, retail and energy. I see it as getting back to basics with what most people seek: something to eat, shelter and heat. That’s how Ukraine’s Poroshenko got on the list (see Forbes newcomer slideshow). The value of his chocolate business (he is known as Ukraine’s chocolate king) is increasing. In the Czech Republic, Andrej Babis’s food conglomerate Agrofert, continues to grow. As for shopping, Japanese billionaire Tadashi Yanai’s Fast Retailing stock price is up 35% over the past year; it encompasses brands from price conscious, Uniqlo, to fashionista brands, Theory and Helmut Lang. (see my comment on diversifying)
And then there is energy, and I am not talking so much about oil, as I am about electricity. Several Turkish conglomerates for example are making big energy plays which are buoying net worths even as the Turkish stock market falters, and the Turkish lira is down against the dollar. Ahmet Calik, who publishes Forbes Turkey, is investing in energy distribution and renewable energy, building power plants in Iraq, Turkmenistan and Uzbekisan. Ukraine’s Rinat Akhmetov whose steel fortune is suffering, is buoyed by investments in coal mines and electricity generation. Solar and wind energy are also important areas; Romania’s sole billionaire, Dinu Patriciu, is investing in solar and wind projects in Europe.
Where work needs to be done: mining and banking. The Bloomberg World Mining Index is down 22% over the past year. That has helped shave off nearly a billion from the net worths of the Kazakh trio – Alijan Ibragimov, Patokh Chodiev and Alexander Machkevich (2012 NW each: $2.8 billion versus 2011 NW each $3.7B). Declining bank stocks knocked three Kazakh billionaires off the list: Timur Kulibaev, Dinara Kulibaeva and Nurzhan Subkhanberdin. (see Forbes dropoff slideshow) My hypothesis: they’ll be working on diversifying over the next year.
This is the eighth year I have worked on Forbes’ World’s Billionaires. As always, I find the personal tales fascinating. I met with new Ukrainian billionaire Yuri Kosiuk at the Four Seasons in New York last fall when he was pitching Wall Street for investment dollars for his poultry producer. We had coffee and a long chat about how his business is faring in Ukraine’s often fraught political environment. His take: if you know how to play the game you can succeed. We heard the same from Aliko Dangote, the Nigerian billionaire who increased his fortune six-fold when he took his cement operations public. He is convinced he can maneuver the politics in Africa to build a continental (and global) cement giant.
On a macro level, the total net worth and number of billionaires says a great deal about how a country is doing. My thesis: in Ukraine and Russia, a disproportionate amount of wealth looks to be accumulated in a few hands, the relic of a centralized Soviet system (in Kazakhstan we don’t see the same because the state still controls many assets under the tight grip of President Nursultan Nazarbaev) (Caveat: some of the wealth is held in investments in other countries but I think my thesis holds true for the most part). Meanwhile, in Eastern Europe, though central planning was also instituted, the political systems and opposition to communism emerged differently and there appears to be more spreading of wealth and perhaps the opportunity to still amass wealth. (see stats below) Indeed, Poland’s robust stock exchange has regional players flocking to go public. Poland is serving as a model for wealth creation.
We can also see where money is coming from – US’ biggest billionaire names come from tech, investments/finance and retail – think Bill Gates, Warren Buffet and Waltons of Wal-Mart whereas Western Europe is all about luxury brands like LVMH’s Bernard Arnault or Tod’s Diego Della Valle. In Eastern Europe, we see finance as a leader, and agribusiness. In the CIS, commodities dominate, though agribusiness is growing.
I was recently a reporter on the Forbes Power Women list; indeed I have been working on the list since its inception five or so years ago. This year, the list is a bit different; glammed up to be sure.
If I would be able to add to the list, I’d definitely look at some players from Eastern Europe and Central Asia making the list a more global. (in no particular order):
*Roza Otunbayeva – Kyrgyzstan’s parliamentary elections are scheduled for this weekend with over 3,000 candidates running for office. Otunbayeva has had a huge role in making this happen. Her interim government took over after the April ouster of former dictator, Kurmanbek Bakiyev. She removed restrictions on independent media and helped ratify a new constitution in June despite ethnic violence that erupted that month. She will lead the country as president until 2011. The mineral rich nation may offer an alternative to China’s dominance in rare earth metals; Otunbayeva will play a large role in developing mining and other economic policies.
*Yulia Tymoshenko – Don’t dismiss the former (two-time) Ukrainian prime minister and one-time presidential candidate. Now leading the opposition, Yulia continues to be a thorn on the side of the current Yanokovych government insisting Ukraine maintain ties with the West.
*Dinara Kulibaeva– Daughter of Kazakhstan’s president for life, Nursultan Nazarbaev, is a billionaire through her holdings in Halyk bank and married to a potential future leader of Kazakhstan, Timur Kulibaev. Though nothing is certain because Nazarbaev keeps his succession close to his chest, clearly Dinara and Timur will remain among the nation’s future power elite.
*Mounissa Chodieva – Daughter of Kazakhstan billionaire, Patokh Chodiev, Mounissa has previously been dubbed by UK papers as Britain’s “first female oligarch.” She and her father, as well as other partners, minted money when Eurasian Natural Resources went public. As head of the company’s investor relations team, Mounissa is heavily invested in managing the company’s image and messaging. I worked with Mounissa several years ago when I wrote a profile of the company prior to IPO and can attest she will continue to be a mover and shaker.
Grazyna Kulczyk – One of Poland’s richest women is know for her support of the arts and for taking Poland up a notch in the contemporary art world. Since 2007, part of her collection has been shown in her redbrick shopping mall, the Stary Browar, a Prussian-era brewery. She also invested in a new conceptual hotel, Blow Up 5050 – both a luxury hostelry and an electronic-art installation.
Ukraine is currently debating grain quotas and the jury is still out on the country’s new president but the energy sector is making waves.
Poland’s richest man, billionaire Jan Kulczyk, who bought into Ukraine’s natural gas production in June, has already started drilling. Kulczyk Oil Ventures launched the M-19 well at the Makiivka gas deposit in Donetsk region.
Earlier this summer, Kulczyk Oil Ventures, through its subsidiary, Loon Ukraine Holding, bought a 70% stake in of one of Ukraine’s largest private producers of natural gas, KUB-Gas, for $45 million. Kulczyk Oil Ventures, which went public in May on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (symbol: KOV); used part of the proceeds from the IPO to close deal in Ukraine.
In a press release, Tim Elliott, the President and Chief Executive Officer of Kulczyk Oil, stated. “We are pleased to be starting the drilling of our first well in Ukraine only a few months after closing our acquisition. The timely implementation of this first step in our plan to increase the production and reserves of KUB-Gas was made possible by the diligence and teamwork of the technical and operational teams of both KUB-Gas and Kulczyk Oil.”
Meanwhile, startup, UkrWindEnergo, just announced it is partnering with New Power Technologies to jointly develop, own and operate a 400 megawatt wind power park in Sovetskiy District, Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Ukraine. In August, Ukrainian President, Viktor Yanukovych, stated he was focused on bringing such projects to Crimea.
Ukraine’s wind potential, according to The Institute of Energy, Dnepropetrovsk State University, is estimated at about 140,000 wind turbines with up to 10 kWh each in annual capacity. Currently, the Ukrainian Wind Energy Association says the total capacity of wind power plants set up in the country is 1,200 kWt.
Ukraine’s youngest billionaire, Kostyantin Zhevago, who almost lost his iron ore producer, Ferrexpo, when markets crashed two years ago, is back raising cash. According to Millenium Capital, Ferrexpo completed its road-show July 16 planning to place Eurobonds worth $500 million. The company plans to ramp up production by 50% over the next five years, and has the iron ore reserves to do so. ADDENDUM: It appears the Eurobond issue has been postponed.
This follows on the heels of fellow billionaire, Rinat Akhmetov, and the announcement that his steelmaker Metinvest raised $700 million via syndicated loan.
Ukraine has had success recently, negotiating a new $14.9 billion loan program with the IMF. As a result, Fitch upgraded Ukraine’s sovereign bonds stating “The IMF agreement improves the sovereign’s financing flexibility and will unlock additional funds from other international financial institutions.”
There is still a long-way to go — Ukraine’s real GDP fell 15.1% in 2009, according to Fitch, marking the second-worst economic performance after Latvia of the over 100 sovereigns rated by the agency — but billionaire confidence appears to be back up.
Ukrainian billionaires, Henadiy Boholyubov and Ihor Kolomoyskyy, via Mantara Holding, a company close to the their jointly-owned Privat Group, may be in for a fight over Ukrainian locomotive-maker, Luhanskteplovoz, with Russian billionaire, Iskander Makhmudov.
Mantara Holding filed a lawsuit with the State Property Fund of Ukraine (SPF) to cancel the sale of Luhanskteplovoz to Transmashholding, Russia’s largest maker of locomotives and rail equipment, which is owned in part by Makhmudov.
According to Millenium Capital analysts, Privat “seems to be determined to embark on the protracted litigation proceedings to void the privatization sale results.” Mantara Holding is reportedly willing to pay as much as UAH 600mn (about $77 million) for Lukanskteplovoz compared to the UAH 410mn (about $52 million) paid by Transmashholding. In fact, Transmashholding bid only slightly above the original asking price of UAH 400 million when the tender was held in mid-June for a 76.001% stake in the Ukrainian rail-maker.
In Boholybov and Kolomoyskyy’s corner: Serhiy Tihipko, the Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, who stepped in this week to express concern over the transparency of the Luhanskteplovoz sale. According to Millenium, this may up their chances of taking back the asset from Russian interests.
Thank you for reading the pieces and please help me in thanking my partners in coverage, Halyna Klymuk Chomiak, and Yuri Aksyonov, a freelance reporter based out of Kiev, for their local insights and knowledge and inspiration.
(built between 1952 and 1955 as Joseph Stalin’s “gift” to Warsaw) doesn’t seem so imposing anymore. It’s now more on an arts complex, surrounded by half a dozen theaters. I also went to my first theater piece this year in Warsaw, Ingmar Bergman’s Wiarolomni (aka “Faithless”).
